European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey Results – June 2026
On June 26, 2026, the European Central Bank (ECB) released the results of its monthly Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), conducted from May 7 to June 1, 2026. The findings illustrate various sentiments surrounding inflation, income, economic growth, and housing in the euro area.
Inflation Insights
The median perceived inflation rate for the past 12 months held steady at 4.0%. However, expectations for inflation over the upcoming year dipped significantly to 3.5%, down from 4.0% in April. Additionally, three-year and five-year inflation expectations remained stable at 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Notably, uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook decreased but still exceeds levels recorded prior to the Middle East conflict outbreak.
Income and Spending Trends
Respondents indicated an increased expectation for nominal income growth in the next year, rising to 1.0% from 0.8% in April. In contrast, perceived spending growth over the last 12 months increased marginally to 5.4%. However, anticipated spending growth for the following year is projected to decrease to 3.8%, reflecting varied expectations across income levels. Individuals in lower income brackets expect slightly higher spending growth than those in upper income brackets.
Economic Growth and Employment Perspectives
Expectations regarding economic growth for the next 12 months improved, with projections shifting from -2.2% in April to -1.7%. In terms of unemployment, however, respondents foresee a rise to 11.3%, although this marks only a slight increase from April’s figure of 11.2%. Households with lower incomes anticipate a more pronounced unemployment rate at 13.7%, in contrast to higher-income households which expect a rate of 9.5%. Overall, consumers expect future unemployment levels to remain slightly elevated compared to the current estimated rate of 10.7%.
Housing Market and Credit Access
In the housing sector, consumers expected home prices to increase by 3.6% over the next year, a slight decrease from the projected 3.7% earlier. Again, those within the lowest income quintile anticipate a higher rate of price growth at 4.1%, whereas those in the highest income quartile expect a 3.4% increase. Expectations for mortgage interest rates stagnated at 4.9%, with lower-income households facing higher rates of 5.6% compared to 4.4% anticipated by higher-income groups.
Credit Access and Economic Outlook
The survey also revealed a concerning trend in credit access, with a net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions reaching the highest level since February 2024. This was juxtaposed by an expected minor decrease in the predicted tightening of credit over the next year.
Upcoming Releases and Survey Methodology
The next CES release is scheduled for July 24, 2026. The survey consists of responses from around 19,000 adults across 11 euro area countries, enabling comprehensive policy analysis to support ECB’s financial strategies. Detailed findings and datasets are accessible through the ECB Data Portal and dedicated CES web pages.
